Today one of the most popular topics in our mass-media is «Was Ukraine handed over in exchange on Siria and Iran or not? It has no sense to argue about this question. Both sides are right. 

First are right, that we were leaked, because Iran’s nuclear program and insurgents of ISIL are the serious threat for the world and it will be necessary to negotiate also with Russia. The second are right that we weren’t leaked, because neither USA nor European Union don’t need to do anything for us and their help today is the goodwill gesture from their side and it could be without it at all. So, what’s happening today around Ukrainian conflict? Sanctions and categorical condemnation of the occupation of the Crimea and the Donbass from one side and “Minsk-3” which will grow guaranteed into “Minsk-4-5-6…”. With every next number the conditions for Ukraine more and more unprofitable. From one side here are the assurances of support and defense of democracy and here are military assistance in the form of written-off «Hammers», second hand used as sleeping bags for offensive, defensive, generally and  any weapons to use from another…

Russia

It was said a lot about goals and objectives of Putin in Ukraine and a lot of versions from exotic (madness, conspiracy of the shadow government) to well founded (creation of buffer zone between Russia and NATO) were made by a number of people.

Creation of the buffer zone

A lot of military experts surely claim that Putin needs Ukraine only like buffer zone. All defense perimeter of Russia is simply continuous sieve etc. without Ukraine. Do you know how long does cruise missile fly from Germany to Moscow and how long from Ukraine? I would like to ask and how long does missile from Baltic States fly? In case of Global War Russia — NATO the offensive is likely be deployed from the territory of Baltic States on the North and from the side of Black sea, Turkey, Georgia on the South. Of course, having Ukraine as the bridgehead, NATO could get a big advantage, but not strategic. Hardly, USA or other members of the alliance will begin the offensive from the ground operations. From the other side, Russian can’t place its military bases on our territory, also loyal treatment to Russians is doubtful after the current events. Kremlin can only expect on the active guerrilla movement on the territory of Ukraine, but not on the buffer zone.

The establishing of loyal to Kremlin regime in Kyiv

If it is the real aim of Putin, he chose absolutely wrong instruments for achieving of it. Pro-Russian government will come to power, here will be one more revolution and that’s all. Ukrainians don’t want rapprochement with Russia and there is nothing to do with it.

The point that Ukrainians not Russians was proven  convincingly and in 2004 and in 2014. “Berkut” and tanks are not the helpers here. The perspective of Medvedchuk presidency looks anecdotally. Putin can’t understand this and approximate oligarchs wouldn’t approve investment of huge resources in such a risky venture.

The variant of frightening of Kyiv power with Global War looks the same little weird too. Russia really can capture all Left Bank Ukraine for 5-10 days and what’s next? It won’t hold it. The guerrilla and rebel movement will spread around all the country and Putin will repeat the fate of Napoleon, run away from Moscow. Also the most the most severe sanctions will follow: providing Ukraine with modern lethal weapons, the political blockade, which which will result in unacceptable damage to the Russian Federation. Putin likely won’t decide on a real war, except that he is really mentally ill.

Corridor into Crimea and “Single Russian World”

The variant of creation the land corridor in Crimea was studied in details, verdict is the only one: it’s not a variant. It will need from 35% to 55% of Armed Forces of RF for the implementation of such a plan, but probability of success of the operation is not higher than 35%.

The version about the protection of “Russian World” and about collector of Russian lands I even don’t have a wish to observe. If there is a probability that Putin imagines himself Tsin Shikhuan Dean, so he really needs the expert psychiatrist…

So, what does he really want? Why everything is happens? The version, worthy of attention and, most importantly, confirmed by the facts, exists. But, at first let’s descry the mentality of “Russian World”…

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Now one phrase of the next content become very popular: “ We like Russians, but we don’t like Putin”. The general sense is the next: angry and crafty Putin fooled his people with help of handheld mass-media. It is one of the biggest mistakes, which can be done towards citizens of RF. The influence is mutual here, it’s not so much about Putin, he had become the product of Russian mentality, it’s more about all history of Russian rulers. If you follow this history, you will see that Russia always had periods of of threats and bribery, periods of “Stalins” and “Brejnevs”. Why it’s so? Let historics answer. But it’s important that such history formed deeply flawed worldview, based on two completely opposite feelings — on the black feeling of envy to more successful, rich, beauty and healthy neighbors and deepest contempt and hate for thereto is. Such contempt could be compared with contempt of lumpen to the middle class, representative of which, for various reasons they never can be.

How this philosophy relates to the current situation? Putin didn’t impose this outlook, he only very skillfully uses it. He made a stake on the class of lumpen, which wants mostly two things — food and fear, he can’t command respect and compensate it with fear.

The problem is that Russia in its current form can cause fear only in human rights activists and narcologists, but Putin acted in this situation is very reasonable: he made a stake on the food.

And that’s terrible! The food begin to come to the end. The need to change the priorities from food into hate appeared. All that happen on Donbass today is the elementary wish of Putin to stay with power and to divert his citizens from the inside problems. Crimea and “Novorossiya” it’s small pseudo-victories, which Putin presents to his electorate except the forage become deficit. All of this is the question of surviving of this distinctive authority, which form now in Russia. The patience of oligarchs got under the sanctions (it’s more better to lose part not everything) shows it without covers. Also, absence of wish of Putin to begin Global War or to make “Crimea’s corridor” brightly tells about it. All of this in a closer perspective will turn into the defeat. He needs Illovaysk, Debaltsevo, Minsk negotiations, which add credits of rating. Properly the position of Kremlin seems to be like this.

European Union

The position of EU to Ukrainian question maybe the most simple and clear. It could be characterized by exclamation of dweller of community from “12 chairs”: “So, let the man sleep!”

Europe recently was in the circumstance of the carefree dream: economy recovers very fast after the crisis, Euro is stable and referendums about output of individual countries is the populist statements for a while. The last of it was the war in Jugoslavia, but the biggest part of it laid on the shoulders of USA. And here comes war in Ukraine, the war in one of the biggest states of Europe…

The circumstance of consisting Europe today is the irritation and fatigue. The irritation from the noise that neighbors make and fatigue that this noise don’t stop. Europe dreams only about one thing: to bring this war to its logical end to have the same possibility to trade with Russia, to buy the same gas and oil at a discount. The question of winners in this war doesn’t matter to Europe. That’s why endless series of “Minsk agreements” happen and that’s why they don’t want to recognize “LPR/DPR” terrorist organizations, they don’t have a wish to give a weapon to Ukraine… Nonetheless, Europe considers itself the fighter for the democracy all over the world, here is the sanctions and condemning rhetoric of the Kremlin, and quite solid financial assistance to Ukraine. Generally it’s hard to say that European Union left out, but anyway the countries of Europe want peace, calm and business without any sanctions, wherein any cost.

USA

United States are in the most difficult and confusing situation. The fighter for the democracy number one in the world faced with, perhaps, the most serious challenge for all history of its existence. USA of course react on the situation, but the plan of actions haven’t been done till today, I think. It depends on the number of circumstances, the main of them is the nuclear weapon of Russia. Considering the mentality of Russians, the direct intervention of USA in the conflict could lead to a full-fledged nuclear war, no country want to make such step.

But not only global conflict scares United States. White House very good remember the situation with the collapse of the Soviet Union, when it had literally by hook or by crook to defraud renunciation of nuclear status from former republics. The situation with collapse of Russia (it is almost inevitable with defeat in Ukraine) the situation with nuclear arsenal can become a real nightmare.

The missiles could fall into the hands of ultra-right and unofficial gangs, which number is full of in Russia, they can be sell to ISIL, al-Qaeda, North Korea to anybody. One more factor is the obscurity of happening in Russia after its defeat. Embittered by humiliating defeat nationalists can begin civil war, as a result of it uncontrolled elements can come to power. They won’t have any business, property or bank accounts abroad, but they have their own hate and once again — nuclear weapon. The economic component can not be discounted too. IMF of United States and Europe spent milliards to recover former republics of USSR. The collapse of Russia will bring once again to such spending, but this time there will be Mordova, Buryatiya, Chukotka and other interesting republics.

Here’s a difficult task facing Washington. From one side there is a need to help to Ukraine, to defend it from aggression, from another not to allow the defeat of Russia and even removal of Putin. The problem is unsolvable, because losing of Ukraine will be the most hard defeat for the president of Russia, after which his resignation will immediately follow, with all circumstances written above…

It seems that situation not in the in favor of Ukraine, but here is some facts. At first it’s the cost of oil. Anyway McCain was right when he called Russia gas station. The economy of Russia completely build on the export of crude oil. The experts affirm that Russia will be unable to wage war with price on oil for 45$ for bbl. Secondly, such problem can’t be unsolving for a long time and the balance is tilting in our direction. EU and USA prepared new package of sanctions, which includes, according to rumors, disconnection from SWIFT and oil embargo and after such things the Russian economy is definitely not survive.

Petr Zlenko for informator.lg.ua