It has passed enough time after the signing of the second “Minsk agreements” to appreciate the viewing of this document by the leadership of Russia and ruling from Russia chieftains of pseudo-republics.
Ukraine feeds, Moscow decides
Accepted “Minsk agreements-2” on February 2015 are directed, first of all, on the de-escalation of the armed conflict and they are the a kind of «road map» to resolve the situation of «hot» military confrontation.
It’s not right to review this agreement, like the detail plan of post-war territory and political consisting of Ukraine. This agreement is more the political declaration, where is a lot of vague language and every side of conflict uses it to interpret their implementation in its favor.
You can judge by yourself: pseudo-republics under ruling of Russian Special Services and with military help had achieved that Ukraine totally lost control under the territories captured by Russian units. The war operation to come back territories was stopped and according to assures of the president it won’t be held at all.
It seems that separatists should seek to maximize the status of the full independence in negotiations with Ukraine. The conception of “interpretation” of “Minsk agreements-2” from the side of ruled by Russia pseudo-republics is next: we will use our military force, shellings from the heavy machinery, make terrorist acts while Ukraine doesn’t agree to take us on the funding, enter «our structures» in the political field of the country.
Russia used “dog tactic” in last organized conflicts. This means that it’s necessary to wrest the scraps of the territory from the post-Soviet countries and create on them unrecognized by the international community “states”. The holding of pro-Russian policy provides the replenishment of sun “independent states” at the expense of Russia for 70-80%.
New screenplay is playing in Donbass for Ukraine: Russia must rule, Ukraine must feed. Do you want peace? You must the influent zone of Russia.
Such execution of Minsk agreements require Russia and chieftains of “people’s republics”.
The president of Ukraine hopes to use Minsk agreements for to disarm the Russian-terrorist military forces in the Donbas, to regain control of the entire border line, according to the laws of Ukraine to hold free and democratic local elections on the temporarily occupied territories.
What side has more chances to succeed, using only levers which Minsk agreements provide?
Questionable minuses
The profitable for Russians and separatists plans points of Minsk agreements:
- Point #11 which requires to make the constitutional reform to decentralize the power taking into account the features of the occupied areas. This point has its clean binding to the time execution — the end of 2015. Other points doesn’t have concrete binding (except point about a complete cease-fire, which doesn’t carry out).
Agreement doesn’t provide the necessity of serial execution the points from first to thirteen points. Logic of the document meant this: at first it is the a cease-fire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons confrontation line, the exchange of prisoners, and so on. Formally agreements don’t have any conditions for delay or failure to do the 11th point, because of failure of other important to Ukraine points of Minsk document.
2. The questions of decentralization must be agreed with representatives of pseudo-republics. Chieftains has a rule to dictate the conditions of the special status and don’t agree with accepted by deputies of Verkhovna Rada.
3. Legislative acts (laws and constitutional changings), fixing the special status of «LPR/DPR» must have the constant character and they can’t be cancelled in foreseeable future. “LPR” and “DPR” must stay in Ukraine on a constant base.
4. According to notes to point 11 “persons connected with events, taken place in separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk” are free from punishment, pursuit and discrimination. Ukraine must amnesty all, including those people who made the most hard crimes: murders, rapes, robs, shots, mockery of captures, organization of this crimes. Such persons could take part in political and public life of the country without any punishment.
5. Local government of “separate districts” with special status are vested with rights to appoint the heads of the prosecution and the courts «in some areas of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions». It’s interesting how this prosecutors and judges will defend the rights of such locals who fighted for independence and integrity of Ukraine and after realising this Constitutional reform will decide to come back in native lands?
6. Ukraine must provide support to social and economic development of “separate districts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions”.
In case when point 11 of agreements will be realised and other things not, this means that leadership and structure of “LPR” and “DPR” will stay hostile to Ukraine in military, political and ideologically ways our country anyway will have to «liberate» this guide from the cares of the socio-economic content of regions led by them and take these burdens on itself.
7. Central organs of authority must promote cross-border cooperation of “LPR” and “DPR” with regions of Russian Federation.
The border with RF on territories of “LPR/DPR” will be so defunct like this time. This demand the authority of pseudo-republics hammer necessarily in the «special conditions of decentralization».
8. According to the decision of local councils units of “people’s militia” must be created for support the public order. This point has been done in “LPR/DPR”. Almost all illegal armed formations were removed in “people’s militia” with all got from Russian “military supermarket” tanks, artillery, MRLS, with all saboteur and reconnaissance squads and other military units. Such army structures, fought against Ukraine, will be used in «separate districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions,» to maintain public order.
9. The authorities of deputies of local councils and staff, elected in early elections, appointed by Verkhovna Rada can’t be stopped ahead of schedule.
Even if these local organs will accept illegal decisions, for example, directed against against the integrity and sovereignty, central power must consider them legitimate and consider their decisions.
Unconditional pluses
The pluses for Ukraine of the points of Minsk agreements:
- The recovery of full control under state border from the side of government of Ukraine in all conflict zone, which must begin in a first day after local elections and finish after comprehensive political settlement (local elections in separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the base of law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) to the end of 2015 subject to point 11 in consultation and in agreement with the representatives of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the framework of the Tripartite Contact Group». If this position will be strictly support, elections on the occupied part of Donbass (before the closing the border with RF) will come on unopposed base, only representatives of such forces, which control this region could take part in them. Those who are the heads of terrorists, separatists and chieftains of illegal armed formations will become legislative legitimate power. Ukraine will forever input two pro-Russian autonomic units in the consistence of the country. Closing could be held for dozen of years, because this question will be needed to agree with legitimate representatives of local power, who could accept any unsatisfactory for other Ukraine decisions. It’s very doubtful plus.
- “Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, heavy machinery and also mercenaries for the territory of Ukraine under observing of OSCE. The disarmament of all illegal groups». What foreign armies? Russia officially claim that it has no armies there. And local authority can invite Russian “specialists” for training “people’s militia”, treatment with complex training «police» tank, artillery equipment, defense systems, electronic surveillance and other equipment so necessary «people’s militia of the several areas of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions» in the framework of cross-border cooperation. Also there is no “illegal armed groups”. All of them became “people’s militia”. This point is very hard to provide to become a plus to Ukraine. The only possibility to Ukraine to achieve a positive implementation of Minsk agreements is to demand the execution of point 11 after execution of 9 (recover the control of border) and 10 points of agreements (withdrawal of foreign military forces, the disarmament of all illegal groups).
In this case Ukraine have a right to consider all units formed in “LPR/DPR” illegal and also prevent to the new intervention on the territory of country both irregular and regular military units from Russia.
The President of Ukraine and parliament are need to firmly defend pro-Ukrainian point of view of implementation of a peace plan based on the Minsk Agreement to Russia, Germany, France.
In opposite case the plan of separatists and Putin will be realized.
To the President could confidently defend pro-Ukrainian plan for the postwar reconstruction of the country, it’s desirable to give to the president the support as the people’s opinion, holding All-Ukrainian referendum on topic: How people see the future policy and territorial structure of the state unitary or federative?
Building own plans to create the zone of influence Putin carefully examining the views of all potential rivals and potential allies to such plans among the heads of the leading world states.
Putin doesn’t descry Ukrainian nation as a subject who can influent of the acception of the decisions about future of Ukraine.
It’s interesting if the president of Ukraine, parliament are ready to give to Ukrainian people provided by Constitution right to express their opinion in a referendum on the future of their country and to determine this future?
Alexander Zubkov for informator.lg.ua