Any process consists of such things as tactics, strategy and perspective. We call your attention to these aspects of the military conflict on the East of Ukraine.

Tactics of Russia

The enemy haven’t been changing the doctrine of parity since the beginning of summer 2014. What does it means?

Russian army could wipe dust AFU still in that times, but they didn’t do it. It would make a huge reaction in the world with recognition Russia not only state-aggressor, guilty in waging of open war against a neighboring state. However, they broke our border group, crushed our aviation, made Illovaysk, but didn’t go further.

Judging to this, the tactics will change forward. Insurgents answer with the completion of their brigades on the completion of our units. We got radars, insurgents had got portable stations of ground reconnaissance (PSGR) etc. According to this Americans don’t hurry with the ammunition for us. The end purpose is the destroying Ukraine as a state with the next stripping of its pieces. It is the tactics of equivalent pressure with some domination and looting.

Actually, according to this doctrine the actions of the enemy could be forecast.

The consequences going out from the doctrine:

1. Supporting the tension on the frontline with help of subversive and reconnaissance groups and shellings;
2. local offensives with glorification of results;
3. premeditated retreats are possible in some places.

The informational and economic pressure also happens parallel to events on the front and it is followed the same strategic purpose.

This is the necessary analytical conclusion that will help to push off with next forecasting. For example, if we step on the sore spot, like cutting of track in Krasny Partizan of Bakhmutskaya and the same with Telmanovo with truncation of the Southern group, Russians can actively intervene. If there can be the defeat of a large group of militants, Russian regular army will come and recover the parity.

Parallel example: the organization of blockade from the side of Ukraine leads to increasing of stuffing of resources from Russian side (combine-harvesters as an example) for occupied by that country territories. A huge question is where grain from fields will go? Now there is a harvesting and there are a lot of reports that seed is removing to Russia from this territories. If it’ possible to follow to commercial logic this grain must be sold abroad through Russia or through our block-posts. Such step could be made and our side could allow to our grain-trucks move empty there and full from occupied territories, but it’s a big risk. Let’s look for some variants:

• At first, insurgents can took away all these cars for personal purposes (illegal re-sale, harvesting and further export to Russia, the use of this technology for military purposes etc.).
• Secondly, considering that biggest part of agricultural firms are owned by Akhmetov, he will do his best to sale grain through all his terminals in Mariupol to Chinese or Africans. This is not so simple in the current conditions, but it is profitable personally for him and could cover some of his outgo.
• Thirdly, if we follow the logic of «local government» the grain will be left in “republic” bought for peanuts or even “forced away”.

Any of such screenplays will ruin local farmers on the next season, but it would allow to feed local civils for a year.

Perspective

We can figuratively say about sanctions: it is hard to go on the road if you add 1 new brick into rucksack every 20 minutes. Does Russia has understanding of happening in the perspective? This question is very actual now for domestic process in Russia and also for every world too.

Tactics of USA to Russia reminds wearing down the enemy. It shows the application of Russians to EU and USA to refuse “from senseless spiral of sanctions, and to go on the way of lifting of sanctions and blacklists”. It’s a signal that such sanctions hurt. Russia is preparing for inside worryings.

A number of events are waited to be in autumn of this year, here’re some of them:

• Iran will become a part of  civilized market of petroleum products. The case is not only in low price, it’s in duration period of them;

• the report of IKAO about Boeing;
• exhaustion of safety business in Russia.

We take special case. Open Joint Stock Company “NK Rosneft” is behind Iran with their technologies for 10-15 years, plus Russia has worst climate. Such gap of Russia can destroy their occurrence and won’t have anything to mine in future. Also Russia has additional problems with transportation. The main problem of Russia is that they don’t see, that world is going to oil embargo of the territory.

The real superiority of manufacturing over the production is 1,5 millions barrels per day. Also, 1,5 millions of barrels could be grown. Such number even could be more, because Iran adds 1 mln. barrels, Saudi Arabia could add the same, plus OPEC, plus Nigeria and Venezuela, which was in the shadow, because of political and infrastructure problems.

So, superiority in 3,5 mln. (such number consists a half of Russian exports) could be organized during 1-2 months. Also, accumulated must be wasted, this situation gives time of priority from 6 months to 1,5 year. All Russian exports of petrochemicals could be substituted during this period. Russia would get inside price more high than world’s, because of sanctions and falling volumes. The priority of other branches of the economy, which were on TOP with cheap energy sources, loses. As a final Russia comes back on a century ago and deprives of any prospects for the development. It would be 1990’s, but without a wish of people to have a business and work.

Embargo is going to be happen on winter or summer of the next year.

Kliment Yarovoy for informator.lg.ua. to be continue…