The analysis of the reasons why Russian-terrorists troops increase their activity in some areas along the contact line and prognoses of further development of the situation by analytic Kiment Yarovoy.
Taking into consideration the events of the last week in ATO zone on the border of Sector B and M (terrorists were trying to storm Ukrainian fortifications in those sectors and in the areas where they border, also they raised the subject regarding mobilization of local “pro-Russian” population and only lazy people don’t talk about it, and they say mobilized will be sent to fight at the seaside, fight near Mariupol).
Those rumors are spread on every corner and more likely this is real. More likely local militia will be sent there to be utilized during their attacks of fortified Ukrainian Army positions that are supported by Ukrainian artillery…
Another thing that raises concerns is that the enemy is moving around Donetsk and ATO sectors mentioned above their anti-aircraft systems. Terrorists do it openly, it’s like they are sending a message to us: “we are forming striking forces and we will cover them from Ukrainian Armed Forces using our anti-aircraft systems, don’t miss us…”
… Meanwhile, we answer our question – what’s the trick here? You need to pay attention to North-East direction, where Russian Armed Forces concentrate their troops as local “militia” of Donbas in Y. Lomovatka (military convoy arrived at on the night of Aug. 13-14), Debaltseve – where the city is full of the troops and industrial areas are jammed by military vehicles. Agents on the ground report that the striking force is already formed in Pervomaisk to attack Popasna. A lot of military bases in Stakhanov in Almazna and Ferrosplavy. 2 units of MRLS BM-21 “Grad” recently arrived to Bryanka and it’s not clear why.
The target number 1 there is Artemivsk and Vuhlehirsk Power Plant as political and economic bonus… Attacks in the sectors mentioned above is probably just distracting tactical maneuver: local militia will be sent there and that’s going to be like slaughterhouse, because Russian war is senseless and merciless, especially to “allied tribes”. And for the picture they will send thoroughbred Russian troops supported by terrorists-mercenaries and Cossacks at the forefront. That’s a right variant… This way Putin will solve 2 problems: he will utilize local separatists and, more likely, will try to take control over 2-3 towns by professional troops, so he can have more cards on the table for further negotiations on diplomatic level.
Here we come to a conclusion that the movement of militia around the sectors of ATO zone is just rotation and re-group maneuvers. They will be replaced by Russian troops dressed like local militia with republic’s passports and military documents. The problem with Vuhlehirsk Power Plant will be also solved as it will create more problems to Ukrainian authorities and not to occupied territory of Donetsk Region. The enemy plans to strike on 20-24 of this month… To be continued…