If you look at the situation on the East of Ukraine closely, you can think that there are some signs that the war is coming to the end. Probably we should expect rapid development of the events and maybe the end. What makes us come to such conclusion? Let’s look at several aspects of life of “republics” and try to analyze.

Self-proclaimed DPR and LPR are looking for mediators who are interested in the end of the war. The split between Russians and locals is deeper than it looked before…

The wheat of DPR and LPR was collected and taken to Russia by railways and roads. And what is left in the “republics”, how are they going to feed population? This question remains unanswered.

Infusions from Russia are very little and they get stolen. The last 2 humanitarian aid convoys are good examples, that arrived half empty and they arrived mostly not for the purpose to bring something to the “republics”, but to take away everything that was possible. This is one aspect. Another aspect is that humanitarian aid brought from Russia is not distributed among those who need it, but it gets to supermarkets for sale and few people get the profit.

The fight for material resources inside of so-called “republics” is getting tougher between local criminal bosses and between “regular” and local militia. Let’s show several examples.

In LPR all drugs of Ukrainian production are banned and all drugs of Russian production go to humanitarian storehouse of LPR for further distribution via pharmacies controlled by Plotnitskiy and his people. Pharmacies are mostly empty, they prices are very high, the variety is minimum (it’s not even possible to buy sterile cotton) and all the profit goes directly to Plotnitskiy’s and his associates’ pockets. That’s just business.

The situation with medical staff is catastrophic, there are not enough doctors like pediatricians and specialized doctors like urologists, endocrinologists, gynecologists and so on, in some areas there are 1-2 specialists left for 10 villages.

There is also a problem with medical treatment of insurgents. Wounded Russian “regulars” and Russian mercenaries get transported to Russia immediately as a rule and they get medical help there. If it’s not possible to get them out right away they get priority in medical treatment on the territory of the “republic”, and local insurgents get it in the last turn, unqualified, or for a lot of money. This makes local armed men of LPR to look like second sort and that initiates conflicts and complains from the side of insurgents.

The situation in DPR looks similar, but there are different aspects. There was so-called Republican center “Trading House Donbass” created under personal control of Zakharcheno and his men, and all goods that are sold in the territory of DPR should go through them. The said that they plan to switch to Russian products only and no Ukrainian. That is also business. For example on September 1 all businessmen were told that taxes getting higher, but the prices get frozen on the same level and all goods must go through that “trading house”, the profit will be controlled and used by Zakharchenko’s people (meaning it  will be taken by certain group of people).

Certain groups monopolize business, trade and so on in both “republics” and that initiates protests inside groups because the resources are very limited. If “regulars” and Russian mercenaries get displeased moderately, there is serious conflict growing among local insurgents, as local militia also has families and relatives living there.

The question of payments to insurgents is also sensitive subject. Financing is going down among “regulars”, Russian mercenaries and local insurgents, but the difference is that Russian side continues to finance their military and they local militia is financed by local “authorities”. The attitude of Russians to locals is pretty humiliating and disparaging, they say something like “you should fight for your republic for free, that is your responsibility and duty, and should pay us bonuses for the help”. And because there is no other way to get money, like business, smuggling, “nationalization”, there are fights between armed groups of the “republics”, between local gangs and between Russian military and insurgents.

There are cases that happen more often lately when “regulars” “nationalize nationalized” from local insurgents. That happens with real estate and vehicles. Russian “regulars” and mercenaries take all the best from insurgents who took it from civilians, and Russians take everything to Russia by military convoys that cross the border pretty often in both directions. There is an old Russian saying “steal the stolen”. Only Russian military can take such valuables through the border without problems, even Russian side doesn’t check the convoys.

The amount of assets taken out to Russia has dramatically increased lately. So there are more fights between local gangs and “regulars”, they even use artillery against each other.

There are also cases when local insurgents break armored military vehicles so they can cut it into scrap metal and sell.

There is a lack of material resources inside “republics”. Economic blockade from Ukrainian side and less resources from Russia makes its effect. If somebody would use internal contradictions between locals and Russian military in a right way, increase hostility among them, they could get interesting results when locals and Russians start to fight. We should also take into consideration that “regulars” in such situation would follow orders from Kremlin directly, but Russian mercenaries and local insurgents are more oriented on local problems and needs.

Locals started to realize that Russia will not accept them and Russia doesn’t need them (a lot families of insurgents had to return from Russia) and they started to realize that they will be simply eliminated, if not by Ukrainian Armed Forces, by Russian “regulars” in case of negative prognosis. This idea should be amplified by the increase of propaganda from the Ukrainian side in order to strengthen the split inside “republics”.

At some moment the enemy should give up or get more active. There is also another important thing, local militia is simply scared. Russian propaganda machine did its job – “javelins, NATO soldiers, secret weapon and phosphorus bombs from the side of Ukrainian Armed Forces”, all that got in the heads of local militia. Looking at the world via scary stories of Russian propaganda local militia is really afraid of Ukrainian Army and they are afraid of Russian “regulars”, because they understand that if everything fails, they will be smashed between 2 armies.

And this is one of the reasons why they are looking for mediators. Before they were thinking about “Chechen” variant for the “republics” to join Ukraine under Russian protection and on Russian conditions, but now there are more signals that indicate that local insurgents are looking to negotiate with Ukraine based on their conditions without Russian interest.

AndwhataboutKremlin? Dotheyknowthereabouttheproblemsthatgrowinthe“republics”? What are Putin’s plans regarding that? Let’s look at markers of the latest events in this direction.

There is hybrid war and the methods of this war are same. Moscow understands that it’s almost impossible to keep the situation under their control without full-scale invasion. But there is no doubts that Kremlin will be punished for this invasion by the global community. That is dangerous both for Russia as a state and for Putin personally.

But Moscow won’t give up so easy and won’t change its plans. If they can’t destroy Ukraine by direct invasion, they may try to destroy it from the inside, as it happened before and bring pro-Kremlin lobbyists to power via elections. So we can make a prognosis that Moscow will try to destabilize the situation inside Ukraine more in the next 2 months and will promote their puppet politicians, lobbyists of Kremlin interests. They start to work with population in that direction spreading ideas like “we got tired of war, so we need negotiate accepting any conditions for the peace”, “the war is only profitable for politicians who are in power now and we need to change them for peace” and so on.

Besides that Putin wants to initiate dialog between Kiev and “militia” (insurgents) and remove economic blockade. Putin wants to destroy Ukraine economically. Russia thinks that if dialog starts between Poroshenko and Zakharchenko Russia will not be responsible any more for staring armed conflict and for taking territories. As occupant Russia has to support occupied territory. Kremlin doesn’t plan that. But if they don’t support the territories they will lose control over them and lose this hybrid war. Putin can’t allow that.

So the major task that Kremlin sees on this stage is to promote ideas of direct negotiations between Ukrainian authorities and “authorities of republics” (under Russian control, but without responsibility for results from the side of Kremlin), and to introduce its supporters into political life inside Ukraine who can change the situation in favor of Kremlin.

In our next article we will tell you what methods Moscow will be using to achieve that goal. To be continued…

Kliment Yarovoy for Informator.lg.ua