In the last 2 weeks the attention of world media is concentrated on the Civil War in Syria and possible Russian involvement in that conflict. Informator.lg.ua tried to analyze that armed confrontation where Western countries and Russian Federation got involved.
Background: Bashar Assad and Civil War
When new Syrian leader came to power in 2000 he followed political course of his father Hafez Assad. Arab-Israel confrontation for Syria was more complicated as during 6 days war in 1967 Israel occupied strategically important Golan Heights that were under Syrian control before Israel Army defeated joined troops of Egypt, Iraq, Algeria, Syria, and Jordan. The position of new Syrian leader on that question was same as his father’s, the peace dialog with Israel is possible only the control on Golan Heights is returned to Syria.
In the 1st decade of his rule smart politician Bashar Assad was maneuvering between public support of Islamic movement in Palestine and Lebanon and claims that he was ready to resume peace negotiations with Israel.
Complications in relationships between Syria and USA were quite logical. In 2002 USA included Damask in their “axis of evil” list. In 2003 during the war in Iraqi Syrian leader first was accused in support of Saddam Hussein and hiding representatives of his regime and later he was accused in support of after-war terror.
The political regime inside Syria combines characteristics of Arab socialism secular pan-Arabism with the leading role according to constitution of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party. Secular character of Syrian regime caused resentment among supporters of radical Islamist movements of Sunni Muslims.
In 2011 the wave of protests that spread around Arab countries also got to Syria.
In the middle of March people in Damask went to the streets demanding reforms in the country. On March 18 people in another Syria city Daraa also hold anti-government protests. Police forces were used against protesters. That caused casualties among civil population.
On July 29 Colonel Riad al-Asaad joined the opposition and created Free Syrian Army. Confrontation became more violent.
Assad was trying to stop the growing conflict, but nothing helped, but there were no results even after giving citizenship to 300 000 Kurdish people. In 2012 there was referendum in Syria regarding new project of constitution where the leading role of Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party was canceled and multi-party system was going to be implemented. Opposition ignored the referendum.
Syria and Russia – friends forever?
In 2012-2014 representatives of Syrian opposition accused government troops in the use of chemical weapon. At the same time radical Islamist group got more power among opposition, inside conflicts started to happen more often between anti-government groups.
USA and Persian Gulf monarchies accused Assad government and his army in starting the war that caused the death of about 100 thousand people.
On August 21 2013 government forces used chemical weapon in the area of Guta. As a reaction to that several Western countries demanded to start military operation in Syria.
Aftermath of the use of chemical weapon in Syria
In September 2013 permanent members of the UN Security Council had a meeting regarding military conflict in Syria. Washington declared intention to hold military operation against Assad troops in response of the use of chemical weapon.
Members of UN Security Council could come up with a text of resolution that would satisfy all members, Russian was against military involvement of other countries into civil conflict in Syria. As a result on September 28 Security Council finally adopted a resolution demanding from Syria to get rid of all chemical weapon and to join Convention that bans chemical weapon. According to the plan that was later named “Russian-American” in the media Syria had to provide all data about its reserves of toxic substances and get rid of them by the middle of 2014. USA agreed that military involvement in the Syrian conflict is only possible after adoption of separate resolution.
Besides that the document addressed parts of the conflict asking to start dialog and find political solution.
Russian media later wrote a lot that Russian saved Syria from elimination in case of military involvement of Western countries.
Bashar Assad said that blocking unacceptable resolution Russia saved not only Syria, but also all Middle East and saved stability in the world by stopping Western domination. Western reporters noted that there was obvious contradiction in that statement.
At the same time military confrontation inside the country continued.
For some time Russian media and public were busy by events in Crimea and later on Donbass, so they didn’t pay much attention to conflict in Syria.
In March 2014 when Russian “green men” invaded Crimea Syrian leader Bashar Assad send a telegram to Russian president Putin in which he said that “Syria supports rational and peace course of president Putin to restore stability in the world and to fight against extremism and terrorism”.
During the vote on March 27 2014 in UN General Assembly for the resolution that recognized referendum in Crimea as illegal, Syria voted against that resolution and got in the list of 10 countries that supported Russian aggression in Crimea.
Russian“green men” in the Middle East, a problem for USA
The deterioration of the political situation in the Middle East strengthened Sunni nationalistic organization ISIS. Insurgents of that organization declared global caliphate and got involved in civil war in Syria as the 3rd party and now they control big territory of that state.
The worsening of the Syrian conflict and strengthening of ISIS positions in the last 2 years happened during the second term of the president of USA Barack Obama. This happened just before presidential elections in US and means that US policy in the Middle East failed and that can have fatal effect for political elites of USA who associate themselves with democrats.
In this situation Obama’s government should get out of Syrian conflict fast and with minimal losses and defeat ISIS. Besides that in White House they understand that cancellation of sanctions against Iran and unblocking its actives that may happen at the beginning of 2016 will lead to the situation when ISIS insurgents will get additional financial support and it means there will have more power in the area.
Pentagon said many times that Russian support of Assad regime will increase the level of conflict.
Syrian conflict already now seriously affects Europe, hundreds of refugees arrive everyday from the Middle East.
Syrian refugees at one of the railway stations in Eastern Europe
The position of Russian Federation that supports Bashar Assad in 3 side conflict “Assad – ISIS — Kurds and moderate opposition” is extremely inconvenient for White House.
On September 3 2015 British media reported about direct involvement of Russian troops in Syrian conflict on the side of Bashar Assad. In 3 minute video there was Russian BTR-82 that is only used by Russian army. There is also Russian language can be heard in the video.
Russian BTR in Syria
At the same time military experts who analyzed the video are not sure if that’s regular Russian army or mercenaries. Russian support of Assad regime with the use of military advisers is a well known fact.
On August 20 Russian military “Nilolay Filchenkov” was photographed when it passed through Bosphorus. It had a lot of Russian armored vehicles. Obviously it was going to Syrian port Tartus, that was the 1st case when Russian military ship was openly going via Istanbul with weapon on-board.
Syrian rebels reported several times that Russian military presence increased in the area.
On September 9 Reuters reported that Russia sent 2 landing crafts and military aircraft to Syria.
On the same day White House expressed its concern regarding that information.
Moscow denied it, first press-secretary of the president Dmitry Peskov said that he didn’t have information about increase of Russian military presence in Syria, and later 1st Deputy Head of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security Nikoay Fedoryak said to reporters that Russian troops can’t take part in Syrian conflict without resolution of Federation Council.
But USA already knows the value of words of Russian politicians and wouldn’t believe them.
Also world media had a lot of reports in the last few days about Russian military ships going from Sevastopol to Latakia with military vehicles and say that Russians are building military base.
Many political observers from different countries are sure that the reason why Russia get’s involved in the Syrian conflict is that Assad regime that controls 1/5 of the country’s territory can fail under the pressure of ISIS and supported by the West opposition.
Probably future collapse of Assad regime Kremlin considers as its own geo-political failure that they can’t allow.
We can add that Russian authorities that used to neglect international law and ignore international agreements can make this irrational step.
It is also possible that Russian authorities plan to use its military base in Syria as element of political bargaining in future, discussing the situation in Ukraine as well.
Possible consequences for Ukraine
Kremlin actions can’t remain unnoticed by USA and Persian monarchies and also by European countries that suffer from immigrants from the Middle East.
In this situation the only reasonable strategy towards Russia would be to exclude it from global geo-politic processes, reduce its influence in international institutions with further political isolation.
It’s hard to say now how strong and effective the steps in that direction are going to be. It’s obvious now that White House had to go in the direction of excluding Russia from geo-political arena. It’s not clear yet how well-coordinating and consistent such actions are going to be and if they are going to cause structural changes of UN and other international institutions. One thing is clear, Russia crossed the line in Syria and created a lot of trouble for Western countries, USA and for current authorities in the White House. And the reaction is going to come.
How is that going to affect Ukraine? It’s still too soon to talk about Russia getting out of Donbass and the end of the war. But that’s good news that Kremlin continues to make mistakes and get more powerful enemies.
Aleksey Chernov for Informator.lg.ua