Rumors of imminent attack of Russian-terrorist troops in anticipation of the 9th of May become more stronger in ATO zone. Leader of “DPR” Alexander Zaharchenko on 23rd of April as usual before offensive of insurgents claimed about quasi preparing attack of Ukrainian troops on a positions of “militants”. Informator.lg.ua decided to ask the experts and militaries: in what condition our defense is and what makes Ukrainian army to strengthen it?
In the beginning of March in the interview to “Перший національний” (First National) Petr Poroshenko claimed: “I held a session last week, where I put two tasks. First one is the building of effective, deeply layered defense, fortifications from first, second, third lines, which will provide the effectiveness of actions of our Armed forces…”. Military authorities in their own turn demonstrate full confidence in possibility of existing defense system to restrain the onslaught of the enemy.
“To date, taking into account the implementation of Ukrainian side points of Minsk memorandum and removal of heavy machinery on a certained by Minsk position distance, we are still able to repel the attacks of the enemy and hold back his aggression” — claimed the head of the press service of the General Staff of Ukraine, Colonel Vladislav Seleznev giving the comment to Informator.lg.ua.
Soldiers and officers of AFU directly located at the at the forefront, told us about how reliable the existing system of fortifications and on what stage the construction of deeply layered defense is.
Where checks — there is defense
“Fortifications and defense itself are on a mark “three” on a demarcation line — considers intelligent officer of one of the brigades of AFU Constantin — In depth, relatively speaking, on second, third line I haven’t seen anything. Maybe, all necessary engineering structures are laid down in the plan, but physically, on a front they’re absent.
Mayor of Mariupol decided to make defense line by himself, Kharkiv also tries to something in this way. If it is supply of president or it’s the initiative of local authorities I don’t know.
Normal fortifications is anti-tank ditches, trenches, shelters for personnel, checkpoints, equipped with reinforced concrete structures, which are able to protect AFU. It’s caponiers for artillery and heavy machinery, dug containers for dugouts. All of this is present on the first line of Defense. But, all this stuff I saw in a places where car can move, it means that there can move checker. If you’re going to pass through all line of defense, there will be another picture. To tell, that we have strong fortifications to protect ourselves from regular Russian forces is wrong. I can class our defense like very “weak”.
The same picture describes warrior from Batallion “Aidar”, secret service agent with callsign “Бык” (Bull). “On my part of Front layered defense not what is not created, people are losing time, locating out of fightings in time of truce. Front didn’t strengthened. We now on a such level of fortifications which we had in time of first Minsk truce in September”. Our level is the block-posts, which can be captured during a couple of hours, without using the heavy machinery. Also somewhere we have trenches and bunkers. All bunkers, checkpoints, and another barricades were built hastily during fightings, elementary to save lives of soldiers. There wasn’t any strategy in time of making defense. No documents or orders about holding the defense company. During a war we made the things, that we decided is right to do. All happened very spontaneous, chaotic and in my opinion, not very reliable. Of course, there are some minefields. There are often a lot of mines on a sections which are hard to cross. On a big number of sections where fields could be more actual there is not any mines. I hadn’t seen any of real serious fortifications on any sectors of front where I was” — told “Bull”.
But some work on creation of the second and third lines of defense still held. “Militaries came, marked the territory for block-posts and consolidations and… went out. It’s the only thing that was held” — reported to informator.lg.ua officer of one of mechanized brigades with callsign «Amber».
They get support, but we receive only empty promises.
In contrast to Ukrainian command, occupiers constantly held the measures to strengthen its defense. The don’t lose time, which was given by weak Minsk agreements.
“Enemy constantly build fortifications. Strong system of fortifications is making clearly, under watch of Russian instructors — tell the officer-intelligent Constantin. — They have already taken the dominant height and settlements, not only on the boundary line, but also in the neutral zone. They have a clear division on avant-garde and reserve, which are located maximum in an hour of moving to potential place of collision. They strengthen positions with beton. A lot of captives works on them. Their consolidations is like ours, because, considering the weapons system, which we are fighting, others simply haven’t invented yet. Usually it’s the shelters from artillery fire for staff and trenches for firing from machine guns. It’s also mine — protective structures. Mine, hedgehogs, wires, thread wastes, caponiers under artillery systems… It’s hard to class what quality it has. But’ it’s a fact that all stuff is present and in normal number of units. Their positions not bad prepared. According to our intelligence information we know, that they have constant trainings. Enemy has its own structurized military system with all necessary coordinate connections. They have logistic, rear, line of defense, advanced units. Of course they have different heavy machinery, electronic warfare, Anti Air Defense etc. From one side we have promises, but we weren’t given by anything. From another — they have promises and they are supplied. They become more stronger. It’s alarming”.
According to Constantin’s opinion, enemy refrains from attacks, because of position of Western allies of Ukraine, not our defense system.
“Attack of the enemy can begin in every moment and we still not ready for it till the end. I think, that the enemy’s advance it’s only the question of time. The only thing that’s stopped them it’s maybe abroad “powers that be” — Obama, Merkel etc” — considers officer-intelligent.
Tactics of Russia is to «hit and run»
Different opinion about a possible enemy attack has the soldier of «Aidar» Bull.
On our sector of front is very quiet. There can be rare shootings of intelligence, but it’s close to be an exception. There is a lot of rumors about massive attacks of Russians on front. But this isn’t still happen. Zaharchenko claimed about disarmament of armed groups outside of his control and about creation the army of “DPR”. There was earlier clashes of bands of so-called “militants”, but now it became a course of this “republics”. If they were preparing a major offensive, they didn’t so actively scrape their ranks. Rather it looks like on a creation of constant structure , this means the stabilization of situation. That’s why I consider that there won’t be massive offensive in a closer times. There will be the conservation of conflict” — say volunteer.
Co-director of foreign policy programs and international security Center of Razumkov, a military analyst Alexei Miller tended to agree with volunteer “Bull”.
“The probability of escalation of fightings are always high enough. The gravity of this escalation depends on evaluations, which are given now to a current situation in Kremlin. It’s understood that Russia has a big priority in manpower. Also, they have enough forces to strike and to move the front line on a certain number of kilometers. But it’s very important to understand that exaggeration of Russia’s capacity to retain the occupied territory exists. I think that this is understood for Putin and his captains. That’s why it’s hard to talk about possibility of large-scale aggression with the help of the regular armed forces of Russia and the capturing of large areas. The most efficient and profitable tactics is to “hit and run”. It’s war for exhaustion of Ukraine, for the diversion of its resources. It’s a war for harming as for the armed forces and infrastructure with the help of terrorist acts. It’s the threat, which, from my point of view, must be kept in mind” — considers Alexei Melnick.
«Maginot Line» or «hybrid» defense?
The opinions of soldiers and experts are different about what system of defense do we need.
“I think that we need normal full line of fortifications on a hall line of borders with Russia. It could be a mega-project — considers soldier of “Aidar” with callsign “Bull”. — We’re supposing that war will be only in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but we’re not sure. On a Sumy’s and Chernigov’s sectors doesn’t conduct any training for a possible attacks. As for ATO zone, for my opinion, we need to combine the creation of might fortifications with systems of antiaircraft defense. AAS is ignoring, because Russia didn’t use the combat aircraft. Still they have very strong aviation. If full-scale conflict will begin, we don’t defend from air at all. I think that it’s necessary to build combined defense from static fortification buildings and dynamic network formed from the mobile units able to quickly run for the sharp sectors of front. Such mobile units is the tactics of our enemy.
Separatists doesn’t have layered defense. Due to the fact that in the necessary time the Russian army comes to save, how it was under Ilovaysk, they successfully operate by such units. That’s a big difference between us and them — we have static defense, but it’s not static, because of created project, it’s because it happened in a this way. They have the defense of dynamic character”.
Officer of intelligence Constantin is of the opposite opinion. He thinks that method of dynamic defense can’t provide the necessary level of protection.
“Method of mobile units terrorists began to use more near Slavyansk, we inherit it and also began on the system of little groups. We came out, struggled once and back on the base. Or another variant: one group causes fire attack and pulled back, another lies in wait and catch the enemy. But such tactics is possible, when we have neutral territory or behind enemy lines. We can’t mobile plug the holes on a hall front. If we have a hole and enemy is pressing us and shellings around, how can I give the mobile group to close some of holes? That’s unreal! We must have stationary system of fortifications, where must be fighters , equipment, machinery, shot positions, provided communications. We really won’t know when enemy make offensive, so that we can in time go to trenches to hold the defense. We need to be there all the time, to be on a place in the moment of beginning the attack” — thinks Constantin.
According to opinion of military the plan of defense must be based on data of intelligence.
“On the basis of this plan reconnaissance is making, possible offensive of the enemy is modeling. On the basis of it is choosing the Command strongholds, beginning from platoon and ending it with army or Brigadier. Then engineering training and mining are planning. Besides, ways of pulling forward units, division of troops to the front parts and reserves are created. There also must be the installation of different systems of tracking AAS etc. According to possible direction of impact of the enemy, resources are calculated for this sector of the front. For example, we need here two batallions and one brigade to repel attack. There mustn’t be any breaks. If it needs for batallion to locate on a 5 kilometers on a frontline, it must be located on them. And in real life we have that 5 kilometers on front holds a company — fourth part of Batallion” — tells officer of intelligence.
Aleksei Melnik, in his turn, considers that classic form of system of fortifications is very costly and it can’t counteract to hybrid methods of warfare.
“First of all, it is necessary to bear in mind, that we are dealing with so-called «hybrid war». We can’t manage with such a challenges with help of line of defense, made for resistance of open aggression. Rather, we should talk about the buffer zone, which could secure other Ukraine’s territory from penetration of subversive groups.
Creating of solid line of fortifications for several hundred kilometers is an extremely expensive project. Such a line of defense was French “Magino” and it didn’t save French from invasion of nazi Germany. It’s very easy to bypass it or break withe the direct impact in one place. And all this line will be in behind the rearward of the enemy. As we have seen it in the same Ilovaisk or along the Russian board, where was concentrated big number of troops and they were surrounded, without an opportunity to cooperate effectively with other units. Preferably the dynamic defense with preventive strikes, deprive the enemy of initiative, it’s exactly the key to success, not in passive defense” — sured expert.
Hadn’t received any of information, confirming the implementation of President’s task, neither from soldiers of front , nor from experts, we have addressed this question to the highest ranks of Ukrainian army.
“It’s a pity, but I didn’t know the details of this “depth layered defense” — says former Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian Navy , Admiral Igor Kabanenko — But I consider this an inefficient undertaking. Wars are won by technologies, high morale of the army and better preparation. And all this “Maginot” lines didn’t protect anybody in the past, so they didn’t protect now” — considers Admiral.
Denis Matsola for informator.lg.ua