Fund «Democratic initiatives» on November 2014 — March 2015 made an opinion poll in four cities of Donbas: Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Severodonetsk and Starobelsk. It was a first measure of vox populi in ATO zone after the beginning of act of war.
Informator.lg.ua find out from analyst of Fund «Democratic initiatives», the native of Lugansk Mary Zolkina what worry inhabitants of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, whom people are guilt un conflict, how they apply for participance of Russia in conflict, whom they afraid more: «LPR» or «Right Sector» and in structuure of what country they see their future.
“LPR” is more terrible than “Right Sector”
In all 1010 respondents were interviewed in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Error for this towns made 4,4%. 995 respondents took part in research in Severodonetsk and Starobelsk. Random error does not exceed 5%.
The most common fear among people in all four cities, according to results of research, become the resumption of fightings. 86% afraid of it most of all in Slavyansk, 66% — Kramatorsk, 79% — Severodonetsk, 777% — Starobelsk.
36% of population, been under power of “republic” of Severodonetsk, is afraid of returning of people from self-proclaimed “LPR”. Herewith, only 1,6% of city residents are afraid of coming into the city the “Right sector”. The main “horrors” of class B by Russian propaganda. There is only 0,7% of such people in Starobelsk. Entering into NATO is a fear for 1% of inhabitants of Severodonetsk and 0,5% of inhabitants of Starobelsk. 1% of residents of Severodonetsk stand in awe of pinching of Russian language. Nobody from interviewers wasn’t found in Starobelsk.
Besides that, 34% of inhabitants of Severodonetsk are afraid of non-payment of salaries and pensions. Inhabitants of Starobelsk have a fear about losing of pensions and salaries more than appearance of “LPR”, it’s 58% there. “
It’s due to the fact that Starobelsk, unlike Severodonetsk, was not occupied. People are afraid of what they’ve already encountered”, — explained Maria Zolkina.
Fear to lose payments is on the second position after the resumption of fightings in Donetsk. The same points make 70,2% in Slavyansk and 42% in Kramatorsk.
Appearance of “banderamen” (ephemeral supporters of nonexistent Ukrainian fascism) mostly feared here than in Luhansk region. This number takes 22% interviewers in Slavyansk and 12% in Kramatorsk. But still less than coming of “DPR”-supporters, it takes 32% in Slavyansk and 23% in Kramatorsk. It is worth noting, that 32,8% of locals of Kramatorsk are afraid of disintegration of Ukraine like a state.
Russia is fighting with… humanitarian aid
The biggest part of population of Kramatorsk — 49,5% considers Russia the one of the sides of conflict. In the same time the public opinion of inhabitants of Slavyansk divided almost equivalent between those, who considers Russia the side of the conflict (33%) and don’t thinks (35%) in that way. But here is another one group, which can’t formulate unique answer (32%).
Those inhabitants of Kramatorsk, who see role of Russia in a conflict on the east of Ukraine, perceive it in supplying of weapon the illegal groups of “LPR” and “DPR” — 57,5% and also in taking part of armed forces of personally Russia in fightings on a side of “LPR” and “DPR” — 42%.
The situation is different in Slavyansk. Only 33% residents of town consider that Russia takes part in military conflict. Herewith, the biggest part of them considers that role of Russia is only in giving to Donbas the humanitarian aid — 54%. On the second place is the supply of armed forces of “LPR” and “DPR” by weapon — 43%.
“Such results were the “cold shower” for us. We couldn’t understand how people could not see Russian militaries in the town where directly was Girkin. Mostly, people are hard to admit their mistakes and time must come for them to appreciate happened” — considers Maria Zolkina.
The other situation is in the cities of Luhansk region. The biggest part of population of frontline Severodonetsk and Starobelsk considers Russia the side of the conflict — 62% in a first one and 53% is in a second one. There is an identical perception of practicing role of Russia between residents of both cities. The biggest part of Starobelsk — 65% and also biggest part of Severodonetsk — 64% consider that this role first of all is in supplies of weapon to “LPR” and “DPR”. Also this role is in taking part by armed forces of Russian Federation in military actions on a side of so-called “republics” (53% — the inhabitants of Severodonetsk and 62% — inhabitants of Starobelsk).
Donbas is Ukraine!
76,1% of inhabitants of Slavyansk and 69,4% of inhabitants of Kramatorsk are for saving of Donbass within Ukraine. However the biggest part of supporters of unity Ukraine insists on providing the major independence.
“It can be supposed that all separatist moods transforms into a wish of major autonomy from the centre. If long-awaited decentralization will be realized, it will be enough only to explain to people, what rights did they get and what does it means” — considers Maria Zolkina.
But, it will be a great exaggeration to say that separatism completely disappeared. Only 7,3% of respondents want the independence of Donbas and only 5,3% dream about joining to Russia.
Alike results on the same block of questions sociologists get also in Luhansk region. Severodonetsk — 64%, Starobelsk — 67% of respondents are for Ukrainian Donbas. But answers are different about question of staying composed. The biggest part of respondents in Severodonetsk consider that region must get the major independence from Kiev and more big scope of authority. The biggest part of inhabitants of Starobelsk want to keep status quo in this question. It’s interesting, but idea of independence of self-proclaimed republics “LPR” and “DPR” practically didn’t find the support: only 1% of residents of both cities is for such statement. Only 2% of population of Starobelsk and 5% of Severodonetsk choose the joining Donbas to Russia.
Also, it’s significantly that in spite of difficult social-politic situation the biggest part of respondents on a question: “Whom do you feel at a first time?” answered: “The citizen of Ukraine” — 54% in Severodonetsk and 57,5% in Starobelsk, 47,4% in Kramatorsk and 33,1% in Slavyansk. Regional identity: “inhabitant of region” took the second place in all cities and city’s identity “ resident of a city” took the second place only in Slavyansk — 34,9%.
“And despite the fact that there was a biggest number of people who considers themselves Russians, comparing it with ethnic Ukrainians of respondents. This means that now we see the process of forming of political and civil Ukrainian nation. Sociologist watch such a result in a history of state for the second time. First time the public identity “won” regional on Donbas in 2014, shortly before conflict” — tells Maria Zolkina.
But Ukrainian authorities are guilty…
The biggest part of respondents in Donetsk region on a question who is guilty in a situation on Donbas points a variant “present Ukrainian authority” — 71,8% . 42,5% are blaming previous leadership of the country, 32,3% — Maidan, split the country, 32,0% — considered USA is guilty and 31,1% put a fault for happens into Russia. The main begetters of tragic events on Donbas are considered in Starobelsk the current leadership of Ukraine — 58%, Victor Yanukovich and his surroundings is blamed by 49% of respondents and Russia — 41%.
The population of Severodonetsk follows another views. People there blames Russia first of all — 39%, and previous authority of Yanukovich — 38%. Except this Ukrainian oligarchs get into a trinity of guilty — 26%, regional political elite of Donbas — 24% and Maidan — 24%. 16% of inhabitants of city are blaming the current leadership of Ukraine in the events on Donbass. Comparatively big pro-Ukrainian tune of Starobelsk, comparing with other Donbas, Maria Zolkina tends to explain, because this city belongs to Slobojanschina — the historical region of Ukraine.
“When everything is just began, we tried to knocked to media: “ Don’t paint everything in one colour!” Northern part of Luhansk region is very different from other Donbas. It’s a little, patriarchal, agrarian-oriented towns. There has never been strong the separatist moods” — says Maria Zolkina.
People are glad for militaries, but some problems are exist
61% of population of Severodonetsk and Starobelsk considers that Ukrainian militaries must continue to be in the city. The difference only is that between locals of Severodonetsk (who, we recall, are afraid of coming back of “LPR”) opinion that militaries must be there all the time prevails. Relative majority of respondents considers that location of militaries in the city is necessary to the moment of stabilization of the situation.
There is a big difference how inhabitants appreciate problems which are connected with staying the militaries in their cities. 70% townspeople of Severodonetsk note that there is no problems with behaviour of militaries, but in Starobelsk only 37% thinks in a this way too.
9% of locals of Severodonetsk mark slight inconveniences of staying the militaries, and in Starobelsk this number is 28%. Presence of serious problems, appearing of behaviour of militaries of Severodonetsk, is noted only by 3% of population, but in Starobelsk such problem is actual to 25% of locals.
Specifying problems, inhabitants of Severodonetsk call the cases of drunkenness — 8%. There is more wide scroll of problems, connected with militaries’ behaviour, in Starobelsk. 42% from disaffected locals say about drunkenness, 36,5% say about shooting, 26% — about car accidents, where militaries took part, 16% — about fights of people in a military form between each other.
“Representatives of local administration said, that it’s a very important information in our discussions that we held. It needs to understand the necessity of increasing the discipline in the army. It’s important that, in spite of problems, people want militaries to stay in the cities” — says Maria Zolkina.
Not in word but in deed
Inhabitants of Severodonetsk distinguish the recovery of damaged infrastructure among the main problems — 34%. Renewing of working of enterprises, creating of a new working places — 34% and addressing issues of internally displaced persons -20 %.
The main task — recovery works of enterprises and creating of new working is considered the first problem by 54% of settlers of Starobelsk. Also, inhabitants of Starobelsk noted the necessity of solving problems of internally displaced persons — 31% and establishing a full-fledged work of all public services — 20%.
“All problems, worrying locals, has the applied character. All of them are relatively easy to solve. In my deep conviction the paternalism, dependency moods, which were on Donbass, can even play a positive role today for recovery of life on this territory and for reintegration of this region. If normal life could be set in this conflict situation, it can become the best argument in the favor of the unity and integrity of the Ukrainian state. More than callings to patriotism. In deed not in word!” — call the expert.
Denis Matsola for informator.lg.ua