Let’s take two widespread statements to analyze the situation that is going on in Russia and try to look at them from different angles:
Statement 1: Putin wants to offer to USA to divide the world.
Statement 2: The world already divided Russia.
Both those statements can exist and they are not mutually exclusive. A system crisis in Russia becomes stronger. The attitude in comprehension of events that are going on in Russia is different. From one side there are political leaders of this country who support the idea to divide the world and who are trying to hide things that are already obvious. From the other side there are people who start to see clearly. People’s dissatisfaction grows despite propaganda on TV.
System crisis of political system that was built based on old model which is convenient and clear for average Russian man and economic crisis, both is the result of Putin’s and his team rule. The country’s government under Putin rule didn’t build anything new or innovative, didn’t come to any conclusion based on previous mistakes. In the modern world those who have information win, those who can adapt to new conditions with minimum losses. Those will win who look into the future and don’t try to revive the past.
There are several ways to show yourself to the world. In order to divide the world you need to have substantial authority. One way is respect, the other way is fear. Previous system (USSR) was built on fear, they thought if people are afraid it means they respect you. Russia went this way. The country with huge human resources, technical and technological potential turned out to be a threat not only for such counties like Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine and other former USSR countries, but for the entire world. The return to the system of authoritarianism, pressure, fear, ignition of military conflicts in order to demonstrate aggressive potential, all that led to system crisis not only inside the country, but also in the attitude of the world to this country and that made the world to defend itself against the aggression. Exactly like that, not to be afraid, but to defend itself.
In the modern world there are certain laws of coexistence of different systems, following of those laws let the word to avoid its destruction. In order to resist the aggression it’s not necessary to start a war. The world learnt how to isolate the aggressor. This formula is not new, but it proved itself to be the most effective among other instruments to solve disputed issues of the world’s coexistence. Same thing happened to Russia. We will talk about how it works on this stage of historical reality.
Sanctions are serious instrument if you know how to use them. The experience shows that Washington uses them perfectly. Soft formatting of Russian can happen during the rule of Obama who did everything in order not to leave any loopholes in sanctions. All possible variants are calculated and get implemented, here and now and of the future period. For example, arrests of financial assets, assets of Putin’s associates get arrested and same thing happens to Russian investments in American bonds. Oil embargo. Build gas pipe from Iran to Europe. In this case dismantling of Russia will cost much cheaper than military campaign in Iraq, it was decided not to fight there anymore, but search for compromises. All this will end up for Russia with a program that offers food for oil.
Let’s compare the approach of these two systems:
During Obama’s rule USA got out of economic recession, troops were returned from Iraq and Afghanistan, the country didn’t get involved in a war in Libya, the development of shale oil and gas production, de-industrialization, the establishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba, space programs such as Mars study with a use of rovers for a long time and photos of Pluto. ISIS and Putin remain as unsolved problems, but those are not just USA problems, those are global problems that should be solved together with allies. So Obama looks good at the end of his rule.
At the same time what happens in Russia: food destruction (retaliatory sanctions), part of Russia is rented to China, Russia won’t be able to support territories that Kremlin took under control as a result of military activities or during hybrid war, like Crimea. Rockets falling down, planes and helicopters crash, de-industrialization, destruction of any alternative influence and thinking, taking away rights and freedoms of its own citizens, political murders, corruption, economic and financial crisis and this list can be continued, that’s the result of Putin’s rule.
Two systems, two different approaches, two different results. The world realized that. The world is taking actions. What are those actions? What is expected in order to de-escalate the conflict: Putin resigns, Russia gets out of Donbas and returns Crimea under Ukraine’s jurisdiction, payment of debts as result of YUKOS case (over $50 billion). And the most important thing is that Russia must give up weapon of mass destruction (nuclear weapon 1st of all) in exchange for cancelling sanctions and isolation, implementation of new investment program for Russia’s development and integration into the global economics.
This is the offer from the global community. What will be Kremlin’s response? And does it have a choice? This is a peace enforcement plan for Russia.